Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,973$ on 2020-10-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $374$ on 2020-10-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,070$ on 2020-10-19

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,159$ on 2020-10-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,138$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,988.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,988.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,621$ on 2020-10-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $423,578$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273,902.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(273,902.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,616$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,083.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(35,083.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $134,003$ on 2020-10-19

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,212,981$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,238,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,238,785.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $220,119$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,385.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(213,385.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,720,259$ on 2020-10-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $744,122$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,279,163.6}{1 + 10^{-0.004 (t - 476.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,279,163.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,816$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,245.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,245.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $697,693$ on 2020-10-19

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,200$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,674.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 101.3)}}\) (asimptote \(92,674.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,918$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,789.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,789.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $97,282$ on 2020-10-19

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $377,068$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,661.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(315,661.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,842$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,171.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,171.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,554$ on 2020-10-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 97%
Suriname recovered 94%
Rwanda recovered 92%
Kazakhstan recovered 92%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Uzbekistan recovered 75%
Senegal recovered 72%
Peru recovered 70%
El Salvador recovered 68%
Israel recovered 67%
Colombia recovered 59%
United Arab Emirates recovered 58%
Bolivia recovered 57%
Bahrain recovered 54%
Tajikistan recovered 53%
Venezuela recovered 49%
Estonia recovered 44%
Dominican Republic recovered 41%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 39%
Mozambique recovered 37%
India recovered 26%
Guyana recovered 21%
Panama recovered 18%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,915$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,409.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(56,409.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(26.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-10-19

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,324$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,672.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,672.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(124.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $174$ on 2020-10-19

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,133$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,171.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,171.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(119.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-10-19

Rwanda⮸

Population $12,952,218$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,992$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,750.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 149.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,750.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(39.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-10-19